Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kirk CousinsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Vikings vs. Giants
Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 279.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 279.5 (-110) after it opened @ 271.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Minnesota Vikings have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
- Kirk Cousins has been among the leading quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a terrific 263.0 yards per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.
Cons
- The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 7th-lowest level in the league vs. the New York Giants defense this year (67.7%).
- The New York Giants defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.52 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the league.
- The New York Giants have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
307
Passing Yards
307
Passing Yards
