Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 260.5 yards (-145/+106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 260.5 (-145) after it opened @ 253.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 70.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.
- Josh Allen has been among the best QBs in football this year, averaging a stellar 271.0 yards per game while checking in at the 89th percentile.
Cons
- The Bills are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 54.8 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 36.3 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 5th-least of all QBs.
- The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.30 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
267
Passing Yards
267
Passing Yards
