Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
49ers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 218.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 218.5 (-110) after it opened @ 234.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Seahawks are an enormous 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
- Geno Smith has been among the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 256.0 yards per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.
- Geno Smith has been among the most accurate quarterbacks in the league this year with a stellar 69.6% Completion%, checking in at the 100th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to attempt 36.0 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, allowing 7.36 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in the league.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.87 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.
- The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
259
Passing Yards
259
Passing Yards
