Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Desmond RidderPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Falcons vs. Panthers
Right now, Desmond Ridder’s passing yards prop is set at 202.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet the OVER up to 202.5 (-108) after it opened @ 200.5 (-117).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in football.
- The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest level in the league against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season (74.3%).
- The Carolina Panthers cornerbacks project as the 3rd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The Falcons are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have run the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.1 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Desmond Ridder to attempt 31.3 passes this week, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.
Projection
THE BLITZ
245
Passing Yards
245
Passing Yards
