Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brock PurdyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
49ers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 213.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, giving up 7.98 yards-per-target: the 6th-most in football.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.15 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in football.
- The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The 49ers are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 49.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
- The Seattle Seahawks safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
- The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (6th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
205
Passing Yards
205
Passing Yards
