Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Brock Purdy from EV Insight

Brock PurdyPassing Yards

Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 213.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, giving up 7.98 yards-per-target: the 6th-most in football.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.15 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in football.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The 49ers are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 49.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Seattle Seahawks safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (6th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
205
Passing Yards