Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron RodgersPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Jets vs. Bills
Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 231.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 231.5 (-110) after it opened @ 236.5 (-110).
Pros
- The New York Jets will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 7th-most pass-centric team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
- The New York Jets have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing attack effectiveness when facing better conditions this week.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has shown strong efficiency since the start of last season, giving up 7.31 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.23 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the NFL.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
284
Passing Yards
284
Passing Yards
