Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Monday, we wrote about QB Sleepers for 2022. This time, we’re looking at the other end of the stick to identify QB busts for 2022.
In truth, fantasy QBs this year can be put into four buckets:
- Weekly Starter
- Weekly Streamer (some with upside to become Weekly Starters)
- The Abyss
(Check out more: QB Sleepers | RB Sleepers | RB Busts | WR Sleepers | WR Busts | TE Sleepers | TE Busts)
There are not many QBs in The Abyss this season, so picking busts is not as simple as it sounds. To avoid taking the easy way out, I’ll only include players that are considered Weekly Starters in this piece.
These are the four QBs I think have the highest bust potential out of the Weekly Starters group.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
The departure of Davante Adams leaves Aaron Rodgers (for now at least) with Allen Lazard as his WR1 (109 receptions in four years) and then nothing sure after that on the depth chart. Adams has commanded a 30% or better target share in Rodgers’ back-to-back MVP seasons while racking up 29 TDs in that span, he has accounted for over 30% of air yards, actual yards and TDs as well.
It’s a lot to lose for any team, and it’s easy to see it being a big loss for Rodgers, in particular, as Adams always seemed to make plays to extend drives.
People will correctly point out that Rodgers’ stats have actually been better with Adams off the field since 2019, but that’s a small sample size (and also doesn’t hold true if you go back to 2016, when Adams first became important).
The bottom line is that Rodgers’ supporting cast is about to be as bad as it has ever been.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson to the Broncos is certainly exciting for Broncos players like Javonte Williams, Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. But is it going to be a good thing for Wilson himself? Objectively speaking, Wilson’s “weapons” just got worse.
Wilson performed as a tail-end fantasy QB1 last year on a PPG basis, but he only finished as a fantasy QB1 in 50% of his games, which put him more in streamer territory than trustworthy weekly starter.
In fact, since Week 10 of 2020, he has finished as a fantasy QB1 only 36% of the time. That’s flat-out bad for a player of Wilson’s caliber, especially with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf as your weapons.
Everyone also complained about Seattle’s “pace” — and the team did run a league-low 954 offensive snaps last year. But the Broncos weren’t much better, checking in with the fifth-fewest snaps (1,036). And the Broncos ran the ball at a higher rate than the Seahawks last year.
All of this is to say that Wilson in a new environment is exciting and potentially good for him, but it’s not a sure thing.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford was great last year, even if you ignore the Super Bowl win. He finished the season as the overall fantasy QB6. He scored at least 20 fantasy points in 11 of his first 13 games as a Ram, but then he did sputter down the stretch, failing to score over 20 points in his final four.
It’s not that Stafford will be bad, but the Super Bowl win may hype him up in fantasy more than he should be hyped up. Cooper Kupp had the greatest season by a WR in NFL history last year — one that’s unlikely to be repeated with as much gusto in 2022. Odell Beckham is no sure thing to return to the Rams, and even if he does, he tore his ACL in February and may not be ready (or effective) for a big chunk of the season.
The team also added Allen Robinson, which is exciting on paper, but it would be foolish to completely ignore the fact Robinson was bad last year.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray was a fantasy flop in 2021. He scored over 35 points each in Weeks 1 and 2, and he finished as a fantasy QB1 in five of his first seven games.
Then he only had three fantasy QB1 finishes for the rest of the season.
The struggles actually date back even further than that. He was a fantasy QB1 in each of Weeks 1-11 in 2020, but then reached that mark only once from Weeks 12-17 in that season.
All told, Murray has been a fantasy QB1 in just 45% (9) of his last 20 games. That’s not the level of consistency you want from a QB you’re likely drafting in the top five.
The Cardinals also re-signed James Conner, who is a legitimate threat to Murray’s TD upside. Murray had 11 rushing TDs in 2020. He had only 5 last year. Conner handled 18 goal-line carries (Murray with 5) and had 10 goal-line TDs (Murray with 3).
