NBA DFS Preview - First Look (2/4)

We end the NBA week with a loaded nine-game DFS slate around the league. As always, let’s take an early look at the slate but understand that many things can (and will) change, so be sure to keep an eye on news throughout the afternoon.

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NBA Vegas Data for February 4 | NBA DFS First Look

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Charlotte Hornets

CHA -4.5, total: 216.5
Pace: CLE (25th), CHA (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

Darius Garland will miss his third consecutive game with a back injury. Lauri Markkanen (ankle) will also remain sidelined.
Gordon Hayward (health and safety protocols) is listed as questionable for Charlotte.

Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons

BOS -7.5, total: 213
Pace: BOS (24th), DET (11th)

Situations to monitor:

Cade Cunningham missed Thursday’s game with a hip injury and is questionable for Friday.

Chicago Bulls @ Indiana Pacers

CHI -2.5, total: 231.5
Pace: CHI (15th), IND (18th)

Situations to monitor:

Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner will remain out for the Pacers. Meanwhile, Isaiah Jackson (ankle) has been ruled out, while Goga Bitadze is questionable.

Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors

TOR -2, total: 216.5
Pace: ATL (18th), TOR (26th)

Situations to monitor:

This is the second end of a back-to-back for both teams.

Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs

SAS -3.5, total: 234.5
Pace: HOU (1st), SAS (4th)

Situations to monitor:

Dejounte Murray and Doug McDermott didn’t play Thursday, while Jakob Poeltl and Jock Landale were ruled out due to concussions.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -6.5, total: 222.5
Pace: NOP (20th), DEN (23rd)

Situations to monitor:

Nikola Jokic missed Wednesday with a toe injury but is off the injury report and will play Friday. DeMarcus Cousins (foot) is questionable.
Willy Hernangomez has been placed in the league’s health and safety protocols.

Brooklyn Nets @ Utah Jazz

UTA -4.5, total: 230
Pace: BKN (7th), UTA (16th)

Situations to monitor:

Donovan Mitchell will finally return to the Utah lineup for this game. Meanwhile, Rudy Gobert has once again been ruled out, while Jordan Clarkson is listed as questionable.
LaMarcus Aldridge will remain out for Brooklyn.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -1.5, total: 212.5
Pace: PHI (27th), DAL (28th)

Situations to monitor:

Kristaps Porzingis has once again been ruled out for Dallas.
For Philadelphia, Seth Curry (back) is listed as questionable, while Furkan Korkmaz and Shake Milton will remain sidelined.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers

POR -8, total: 214
Pace: OKC (17th), POR (22nd)

Situations to monitor:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will remain sidelined for the Thunder. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl has also been ruled out for the next few weeks with a foot injury.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Evan Mobley is averaging 5.0 post-ups per game over his last two contests

The Cavaliers have been without All-Star point guard Darius Garland for the last two games. He runs the entire offense, but in his absence, Cleveland’s offense has gone through the post with Mobley, Jarrett Allen and Kevin Love. For the season, Mobley is averaging around three post-ups per game but over the last two games, that number is up to 5.0 per game. Mobley is coming off his best game as a pro, scoring 29 points to go along with 12 rebounds and two assists. With Garland, Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio off the floor this season, Mobley is sporting a 26% usage rate, while averaging 1.06 fantasy points per minute. He has a great chance at a repeat performance on Friday, facing a Charlotte team that is coughing up the third-most post-up points per game on the year (5.3), while also allowing the sixth-highest field goal percentage off the play type (52.4%). Charlotte is also second in the NBA in drives per game (54.8), which will give Mobley shot-blocking potential.

Josh Giddey is averaging 98.5 touches per game since Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s injury

It has been a two-game stretch where the Thunder have been without Gilgeous-Alexander. During that span, Giddey is sixth in the NBA in touches per game (98.5), while also averaging a healthy 6.9 minutes of possession per game. Giddey’s scoring hasn’t been amazing, but his peripherals are awesome, especially with Gilgeous-Alexander out of the lineup. When Gilgeous-Alexander is off the floor this season, Giddey is sporting an awesome 26% rebounding rate and 21% assist rate, while also posting a healthy 23.3% usage rate. He is also averaging 1.08 fantasy points per minute in the split. Also averaging a strong 16 rebounding chances per game over his last two contests, Giddey has serious triple-double upside, especially in a favorable matchup against Portland.

Fred VanVleet is averaging 42.1 minutes per game over his last 10 contests

Sure, a few of those games went to overtime, but the fact remains that VanVleet, along with any Toronto starter, is guaranteed to log 38-40 minutes in any competitive game. For the season, VanVleet leads the league in minutes per game (38.7) and a game against the Hawks projects to be close, which means we should once again see 38-40 minutes. VanVleet hasn’t reached 50 fantasy points in any of his last five games but he’s also shooting just 34% from the field during that span. Given the strong peripherals, if the shot starts to fall, VanVleet clearly has 50-plus-point upside, while his price tag remains very, very strong across the industry.

Terry Taylor saw 29 rebounding chances during Indiana’s last game

With Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner and Goga Bitadze all sidelined last game, the Pacers remained very short-handed in the frontcourt. Isaiah Jackson had been playing well but suffered an ankle injury about 10 seconds into the game. As a result, Taylor had to play all of the minutes and he delivered, scoring 24 points to go along with 16 rebounds, three assists and a steal. He saw an insane 29 rebounding opportunities in that game, while converting just over 55% of those chances. Ahead of Friday’s game, Jackson has been ruled out, while Bitadze is questionable. If Bitadze is ruled out again, Taylor will become one of the top value plays of the slate.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Brandon Goodwin vs. CHA — Goodwin entered the Cavaliers starting lineup at point guard last game and was productive, scoring seven points to go along with seven rebounds and eight assists. With Darius Garland sidelined, Goodwin eclipsed 80 touches against the Rockets and likely remains in the starting five ahead of a massive pace-up spot against Charlotte.

Thaddeus Young vs. HOU — With both Jakob Poeltl and Jock Landale sidelined, Young started at center for San Antonio last game. He did enough, scoring seven points with eight rebounds, three assists and a pair of steals. With Poeltl and Landale off the floor this season, Young is sporting a 25% rebounding rate, 16% assist rate and is averaging 1.09 fantasy points per minute.