NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
You don’t appreciate what you have until it’s gone.
OK, OK. While the NBA will only be on break for about six days, the arrival of the All-Star break always makes me realize just how much I love basketball. So, although there aren’t any games for a little bit, I decided to write about it.
Join me as I go over some of the midseason awards from the first half of a remarkable NBA season.
Most Valuable Player
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
Pure domination.
There is no better way to describe Joel Embiid’s 2021-2022 campaign. While this will be a very fun MVP race, as it stands right now, Embiid is in front. He is averaging a league-leading 29.6 points per game, while his 11.2 rebounds per game are good for seventh-most in basketball. He is also adding 4.5 assists per game, as Embiid is posting jaw-dropping stat lines on a nightly basis. Embiid is third in the league in PER and is on pace to become the first center to lead the NBA in scoring since Shaquille O’Neal (1999). Embiid has played in 46 games this season, scoring at least 25 points in 33 of those contests. He is scoring in a variety of ways, but Embiid’s main source of production has come from the post, where no player in basketball is more dangerous. Embiid currently leads the league in both post-up possessions (10.1) and points per game (8.7), while shooting 50% off the play type and averaging 1.08 points per possession.
But it isn’t the only way he’s scoring.
At 7-foot-0 and 280 pounds, Embiid has become not just a player you have to respect from beyond the arc but a player you have to fear. He is shooting about 37% from three-point land on nearly four attempts per game. However, he’s also been very impressive on pull-up triples, shooting 37% off pull-up threes, which ranks 12th among all players averaging at least 5.0 pull-up points per game. To be able to do that at his size is absolutely stunning and has become a huge reason why Embiid is truly unstoppable.
As for the 76ers, well, they are unsurprisingly worse when Embiid is out of the lineup. In games Embiid sits, Philadelphia’s offensive rating drops by 3.99, while the defensive rating falls by 4.85. They are allowing nearly six more points per game when Embiid sits. They are 7.4 points per possession better when Embiid is on the floor and when he is resting, this offense stalls more often than not.
This MVP race is going to go right down to the wire but given how unbelievably dominant he’s been, especially over the last month and a half, Embiid gets the edge for me.
Honorable mentions: Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, DeMar DeRozan
Sixth Man of the Year
Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers
For the first two months of the season, Tyler Herro was running away with this award. However, while he’s still the clear favorite, Herro is not my choice.
Kevin Love, the lone veteran on a young, emerging Cavaliers team, has accepted his new role as the sixth man and has thrived. The 33-year-old is averaging 14.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game, despite logging just over 22 minutes per contest. Love is also shooting 39.3% from beyond the arc on 6.4 attempts per game, his highest three-point percentage since the 2017 campaign. Yes, Herro is averaging 20.0 points per game, but he is also averaging over 32 minutes and has started 10 games to Love’s two. Love ranks 22nd in the NBA in PER, well ahead of Herro and any other candidate. We’ve seen a handful of games where Love has had massive scoring outbursts off the bench, propelling Cleveland to wins, while his per-36-minute numbers are arguably his best since the 2013 season. The addition of Caris LeVert could certainly hurt Love’s chances of winning the award, especially if he continues to lead the second unit but as of right now, Love is my choice for Sixth Man of the Year.
Honorable mentions: Tyler Herro, Kelly Oubre
Rookie of the Year
Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
Staying in Cleveland, Evan Mobley has legitimately changed the landscape of this entire franchise. The clear frontrunner for the Rookie of the Year Award, Mobley has had such an impact on winning, as he’s helped transform this Cavaliers team from “life after LeBron James” to “why wait?” Mobley is averaging 14.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.6 blocks per game and while his points per game average would be the second lowest since 2003, it is more than just scoring that Mobley has brought to this Cleveland team.
At age 20, Mobley has already become one of the best defensive players in basketball. He’s anchored one of the best defensive teams in basketball, averaging 1.6 blocks per game, while also possessing the athleticism and footwork to defend guards and wings, despite being 6-foot-11. And odds are if you are taking a shot against Cleveland, Mobley is around, as his 12.4 contested shots per game are good for the third-most in all of basketball this season. Cleveland’s defensive rating when Mobley is on the floor is at 104.12 but when Mobley is on the bench, that rating drops all the way to 112.21, a massive difference. He is already one of the best rim protectors in basketball and barring anything crazy, Mobley will win this award, especially since the Cavaliers have arguably been the surprise team of the season.
Honorable mentions: Scottie Barnes, Josh Giddey
Most Improved Player
Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies
Ja Morant is the favorite to win this award, but I can honestly say that five or six players are very, very deserving. However, while Morant should also be in consideration for MVP, it is unlikely he wins, which makes him the clear choice for most improved. Already an elite talent, Morant has improved his points per game average from 19.1 last year to 26.8 this season. He is also averaging 5.8 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game, as Morant has led another surprise team, the Memphis Grizzlies, to a 41-19 record, making them the third seed in the Western Conference. The pressure that Morant has been putting on opposing defenses has been insane, as his 20.9 drives per game rank third most in basketball, while shooting 52% off the play type. Meanwhile, his 15.0 points per game off drives lead the NBA and Morant is among the league leaders in points per game from the paint.
As for more improvements, Morant is shooting a career-high 49.5% from the field. He is also shooting 48.4% from the field out of the pick-and-roll this season, way up from last year’s average of just over 40% off the play type. Morant already appeared to be the future of the NBA but in the first half of his third season, the 22-year-old has not just improved, but he’s arguably become one of the 10 or 12 best players in all of basketball.
Get your shades on, Grizzlies fans. The future (and present) is bright as hell.
Honorable mentions: Darius Garland, Dejounte Murray, Tyrese Maxey, Anfernee Simons
Best Fantasy Basketball Waiver Wire Add
Anfernee Simons, Portland Trail Blazers
There have been rumors surrounding a Portland rebuild for a while now. However, an abdominal injury to Damian Lillard may have sped up the process, as the Trail Blazers, who have been playing without Lillard since the end of December, have made some major changes. Before the deadline, Portland traded CJ McCollum, Robert Covington and Norman Powell. Sure, much of it has to do with the direction this franchise is headed. But one thing is for certain.
Anfernee Simons is in the driver’s seat.
Simons is enjoying a breakout year, averaging 17.0 points per game on 44% from the field and 40% from beyond the arc. He’s had some strong games off the bench this season but since the beginning of January, Simons has been unbelievable. In fact, since Jan. 3, Simons is averaging 23.6 points per game (16th in all of basketball), while adding 6.1 assists and 2.9 rebounds per game. And during that stretch, Simons is shooting 41.8% from beyond the arc, while averaging 10.6 three-point attempts per game, the second-most in the league. With both Lillard and McCollum off the floor this season, Simons is sporting a 28.5% usage rate, while averaging an impressive 1.10 fantasy points per minute. Simons is scoring in a variety of ways, whether it is off the dribble, catching and shooting or attacking the basket. He’s now scored at least 30 points in each of his last three contests, while scoring at least 25 points in six of his last 11. Apparently no one told Portland that they were tanking, as Simons has led this team to four consecutive wins ahead of the All-Star break, while helping fantasy teams everywhere over the last month or so.
