Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The worst part of fantasy football is drafting a team that you feel good about, only to have your season derailed by injury. It is even worse when the players who get hurt are premium picks in your league’s fantasy draft.
It is extremely easy to get caught up in the excitement of the offseason and forget about last year in the spring. Free agency and trades give players new landing spots, and the NFL draft injects new players into fantasy draft pools. However, we are reminded each season that players being in established situations usually lead to fantasy production.
The 13 players featured in this article are players who saw their 2022 season end prematurely to injury. The goal of this article is to assess how we should handle them in 2023 fantasy drafts and how much of an impact their injuries will have going forward. Check them out below.
Quarterback
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
The fantasy football community was expecting huge things from Trey Lance in 2022. And it made a lot of sense. Lance has a massive rushing upside and found himself as the starting quarterback in a quarterback-friendly passing system with some of the best yards-after-catch receivers in the NFL.
Unfortunately, that massive potential was never realized. The second-year quarterback played his first game in a monsoon that made passing impossible and played just 16 snaps in Week 2 before breaking his ankle and missing the rest of the season.
Lance should be healthy to begin the season and finds his primary competition for the starting quarterback job (Brock Purdy) rehabbing from an offseason elbow surgery. If you were excited about Lance last season, then you should be ecstatic about him stepping into a starting role with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle at his disposal in 2023.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford was drafted as QB12 in fantasy drafts after winning a Super Bowl and producing one of the best seasons in his career during his first year with the Rams. Logically, it made sense. The Rams returned most of their starting offense from their Super Bowl run and added Allen Robinson as a complement to Cooper Kupp in the passing game.
Stafford struggled throughout his first nine starts of the year behind a porous offensive line. Eventually, his season ended thanks to a cervical bruise. The veteran quarterback finished the year with just 2,087 yards and 10 touchdowns with eight interceptions.
Stafford will be back under center in 2023 and will have Kupp, but the team lacks the resources to significantly upgrade their offensive line unless they restructure some players. They started that process by trading Jalen Ramsey to the Miami Dolphins.
Relying on pocket passers in fantasy is a dangerous game. Trusting a 35-year-old quarterback coming off neck and elbow injuries with a weak offensive line is even more difficult to fathom. It will be hard to roster Stafford with confidence next season.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor was universally regarded as a top-2 fantasy pick in drafts last season after he eclipsed 2,000 total yards and 20 total touchdowns while averaging 21.9 PPR points per game in 2021. The Colts had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and had seemingly upgraded their quarterback situation by adding Matt Ryan to replace Carson Wentz. Then the season happened.
The Colts offensive line struggled to gel throughout the season, and Ryan lacked the arm strength to keep opposing defenses honest. Teams were able to load up the box and contain Taylor, who suffered two different ankle injuries and missed six games. Taylor finished the season with less than 1,100 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. Taylor’s ADP in early fantasy drafts has dropped him from a top-2 pick to a back-end first-round pick.
However, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic that Taylor bounces back in 2023. The Colts offensive line was able to gain a year of experience in 2022. Plus, the team will add a quarterback in free agency or the draft that could force defenses to play honestly. Finally, the team will have a head coach (Shane Steichen) that was the architect of an offense that turned Miles Sanders into a top-5 rusher last season.
Taylor has had plenty of time to recover from an injury that doesn’t tend to linger across seasons. If the Colts can truly upgrade the quarterback and get more consistency from their offensive line, he could easily find himself as the RB1 yet again in 2023.
Breece Hall, New York Jets
Breece Hall looked the part of a top-end RB while playing in a split backfield through his first seven games. Hall had 80 carries for 463 yards and four touchdowns and added 19 receptions for 218 yards and a receiving touchdown. More importantly, the rookie was growing into a full-time role in the offense. From Weeks 1-3, Hall averaged 11.3 touches (seven rushing attempts and 4.3 receptions) per game. From Weeks 4-6, the rookie running back saw 18.3 carries and 2.0 receptions per game. Then he tore his ACL.
Time will tell where Hall will be in his rehabilitation process to start the 2023 season. Historically, running backs struggle to start the season following an ACL injury. However, Hall may have the makings of a fantasy running back who gets healthy as the season progresses and hot during the fantasy playoffs. He should be a fantasy producer next year and could be a league-winner depending on how much his ADP is affected by his injury.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Like Breece Hall, Javonte Williams‘ season ended with a knee injury. Unfortunately for Williams, reports indicate that he suffered a multi-ligament tear in his knee, which complicates his potential return in 2023. Rumors have surfaced of Williams potentially missing most, if not all, of 2023. The moves Denver makes in free agency will likely tip their hand to their expectations for Williams next season.
Williams still has top-100 ADP in early drafts, which seems risky given the nature of his injury. Until there is more certainty in his health, it is worth being patient before diving in on Williams at ADP next season.
Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp felt like one of the safest fantasy picks in the first round of 2022 fantasy football drafts. Kupp was the first (only?) read down the field in a pass-heavy offense with the same quarterback that targeted him 191 times the year before. And in the first half of the season, the projections looked solid. From Weeks 1-9, Kupp averaged 11.6 targets, 9.0 receptions and 101.6 receiving yards per game while adding six touchdowns. Unfortunately, his season ended with an ankle injury that required surgery.
In early drafts, Kupp is still firmly locked into a first-round pick, which makes a lot of sense. Kupp will have plenty of time to get to full strength after surgically repairing his high ankle sprain and will be locked into a high-volume role once again. Kupp was pacing for roughly 190 targets again in 2022 before his season ended, and he has chemistry with Stafford.
Fantasy managers should feel confident in the veteran wide receiver’s ability to command the necessary targets to warrant his high draft expectations next season.
Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens
Rashod Bateman felt like a sure thing heading into 2022’s football season. The former first-round pick was coming off a healthy offseason and was primed to be WR1 in Baltimore after the team traded Marquise Brown during the NFL draft. A foot injury ultimately derailed those hopes and dreams.
Bateman still flashed play-making ability in his first four games, catching 15-of-28 targets for 285 yards and two touchdowns. Foot injuries can be tricky, but Bateman seems to be on track in his recovery and could even be ready to go by the beginning of camp. At worst, he may miss a game or two to start the year.
Ultimately, there is plenty of uncertainty in Baltimore next season. Lamar Jackson is currently a free agent on the non-exclusive franchise tag, and the team replaced long-time offensive coordinator Greg Roman with Todd Monken from the University of Georgia.
Uncertainty aside, talent is worth gambling on, and Bateman could find himself as the lead receiver in a new offense that throws the ball more. Assuming he is on track in his recovery, he could become a great value in fantasy drafts next season.
Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants
Wan’Dale Robinson’s rookie season didn’t go as planned for the Giants thanks to two different knee injuries, including a Week 11 ACL tear, costing him 11 games. However, there was a stretch when healthy when Robinson looked like a player who could have a role in an NFL offense.
From Weeks 6 to 11, Robinson caught 22-of-30 targets for 222 yards and a touchdown while seeing a growing snap share. The Giants will likely add talent to their receiver corps, but Robinson has at least earned a shot at being the team’s primary slot receiver.
There will be some uncertainty in Robinson’s recovery from the ACL injury. The Kentucky product came into the NFL known for his explosive speed and lateral agility, both of which could be affected by his injury. Robinson may need time to ramp up, but if he can get healthy by training camp he could be a late-round flier who pays off in a big way in the double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts.
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions
Jameson Williams didn’t suffer any injuries during the 2022 season, but the ACL injury he suffered in his last game at Alabama cost him 12 games of his rookie year. When Williams debuted at the end of the season, he never exceeded 25% of Detroit’s snaps and largely ran wind sprints on the field. He had just one reception and 41 yards and one rushing attempt for 40 yards and a touchdown in six games.
However, Williams will start next season more than a year removed from his knee injury. More importantly, we were able to see him on the field in 2022 and see firsthand that his elite speed was unaffected by the ACL tear. In early drafts, the second-year receiver is currently going in the fifth round. That seems like a completely justified place since he should be 100% to start his second year in the league.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
The idea of Kyle Pitts will always be tantalizing. A tight end who can play outside and earn targets is the ideal fantasy situation. Unfortunately, Pitts has yet to provide the value the fantasy community projects for him through two seasons.
Pitts did get 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie, but he found the end zone just once and had just 110 targets in a low-passing volume offense. Things didn’t change too much in 2022. Pitts saw just 59 targets through the first 10 games of the season before a knee injury forced him to miss the final seven games.
From a health standpoint, Pitts should be good to go to start the 2023 season. All signs point to him being healthy enough in training camp. Unfortunately, none of that has an impact on his role in a run-heavy offense competing for targets with Drake London.
Pitts’ upside will be tantalizing, and his health shouldn’t stop fantasy managers from taking a chance on him, but the team situation remains less than ideal unless the Falcons make a major move at the quarterback position.
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders
The acquisition of Davante Adams was supposed to help Darren Waller by taking attention away from him in the secondary. Unfortunately, hamstring injuries forced Waller to miss eight games last season. In nine games, the veteran tight end caught just 28-of-43 targets for 388 yards and three touchdowns.
Waller has had the entire offseason to heal and finds himself as the secondary target to Adams with an uncertain quarterback situation. From a pure talent perspective, he should easily have a top-5 tight end in his range of outcomes next season. While soft tissue injuries tend to linger (especially if you hit the dreaded 30-year-old landmark), Waller will have had an entire offseason to get healthy.
Waller’s health stopped him from hitting his ceiling in 2022, but those issues shouldn’t be the reason he doesn’t produce next year. Take advantage of his suppressed ADP while you have the chance.
