Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to the Week 11 fantasy football start/sit column, where I have detailed which players you should start and sit this week based on their recent trends, matchups, and other game contexts.
A special note for Week 11: My myriad Bills/Browns weather-related ranking movements assume that game will happen in Buffalo despite a chance for a major blizzard on game day. If that changes, please refer to our rankings page for updates or ask me specific questions about it on Twitter.
- Players are labeled as starts if I rank them better than the consensus and sits if I rank them worse than the consensus, but consider your specific league contexts to make your start and sit decisions.
- The positional rankings and fantasy point totals rely on half PPR scoring.
- The consensus rankings refer to the FantasyPros expert consensus.
- You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.
Week 11 Start/Sit: Quarterbacks
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 10th, +1 vs. consensus (11th)
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.15 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. Titans (24 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 25% chance of snow)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 11th, +1 vs. consensus (12th)
+ Venue: Aaron Rodgers has averaged 1.5 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two and a half seasons.
+ Opponent: Rodgers has faced the seventh-hardest schedule of pass defenses that on average have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.05 per game and should have an easier schedule starting this week.
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.17 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
– Volume: Below-freezing temperatures, moderate forecasted winds and a 25% chance of snow will likely skew the Packers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Davis Mills, Texans vs. Commanders (Dome)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 20th, +3 vs. consensus (23rd)
+ Venue: Davis Mills has averaged 6.4 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last one and a half seasons.
Daniel Jones, Giants vs. Lions (38 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 14th, -5 vs. consensus (9th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Giants’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.29 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Jared Goff, Lions at Giants (38 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 18th, -2 vs. consensus (16th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Lions’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Giants have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.14 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Derek Carr, Raiders at Broncos (43 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 19th, -2 vs. consensus (17th)
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.59 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Kenny Pickett, Steelers vs. Bengals (30 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 21st, -2 vs. consensus (19th)
– Volume: Below-freezing temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Steelers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Bengals have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.22 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Jacoby Brissett, Browns at Bills (32 degrees with heavy forecasted winds and a 60% chance of snow)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 22nd, -1 vs. consensus (21st)
– Volume: Below-freezing temperatures, heavy forecasted winds and a 60% chance of snow will likely skew the Browns’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Ryan Tannehill, Titans at Packers (24 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 25% chance of snow)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 23rd, -1 vs. consensus (22nd)
– Venue: Ryan Tannehill has averaged 2.2 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two and a half seasons.
– Volume: Below-freezing temperatures, moderate forecasted winds and a 25% chance of snow will likely skew the Titans’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Week 11 Start/Sit: Running Backs
James Conner, Cardinals vs. 49ers (Dome)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 17th, +1 vs. consensus (18th)
+ Volume: I am projecting James Conner for 20.8 carries + targets this week, 10th at his position (he had 24 carries + targets and played 96% of snaps in Week 10 and should have less competition for touches after Eno Benjamin’s release).
+ Volume: Conner averaged 2.0 targets per game when receiving back Chase Edmonds played and 5.4 targets per game when Edmonds did not play in 2021 and could enjoy a similar target bump this season without Benjamin.
Devin Singletary, Bills vs. Browns (32 degrees with heavy forecasted winds and a 60% chance of snow)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 19th, +1 vs. consensus (20th)
+ Volume: Below-freezing temperatures, heavy forecasted winds and a 60% chance of snow will likely skew the Bills’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Efficiency: Devin Singletary has just 3 touchdowns but has 5.24 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.24-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Browns have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.27 per game in 2022, tied for sixth most in football.
Najee Harris, Steelers vs. Bengals (30 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 22nd, +1 vs. consensus (23rd)
+ Volume: Below-freezing temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Steelers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Efficiency: Najee Harris has just 2 touchdowns but has 4.52 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.52-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Efficiency: Harris ranks fourth from last with -1.52 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate rise the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
Brian Robinson, Commanders at Texans (Dome)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 23rd, +1 vs. consensus (24th)
+ Opponent: The Texans have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.27 per game in 2022, tied for sixth most in football.
Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs at Chargers (Dome)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 28th, -3 vs. consensus (25th)
– Volume: I am projecting Isiah Pacheco for 10.0 carries + targets this week, 38th at his position (he had 16 carries + targets in Week 10 with a run-positive game script but has averaged 10.0 since he became the starter in Week 7).
+ Opponent: The Chargers have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.23 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Kenyan Drake, Ravens vs. Panthers (40 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 33rd, -5 vs. consensus (28th)
– Volume: I am projecting Kenyan Drake for 10.2 carries + targets this week, 37th at his position (he had 11 carries + targets in Week 8 when Gus Edwards last played, and Edwards seems likely to play after returning to practice Wednesday).
– Efficiency: Drake has 4 touchdowns but has just 2.81 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.19-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
+ Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Ravens’ pass/run balance toward the run.
James Robinson, Jets at Patriots (40 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 38th, -2 vs. consensus (36th)
– Opponent: The Patriots have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.41 per game in 2022, third most in football.
+ Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Jets’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Week 11 Start/Sit: Wide Receivers
Rondale Moore, Cardinals vs. 49ers (Dome)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 19th, +3 vs. consensus (22nd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Rondale Moore for 9.2 targets this week, 11th at his position (he has averaged 8.0 targets since his return from injured reserve in Week 4 and saw a 34.6% target share in Week 10 after Zach Ertz left in the first quarter with an injury).
Parris Campbell, Colts vs. Eagles (Dome)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 34th, +4 vs. consensus (30th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Parris Campbell for 8.4 targets this week, 16th at his position (he has averaged 10.7 targets in Matt Ryan’s most recent 3 starts).
– Opponent: The Eagles have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.14 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Terrace Marshall, Panthers at Ravens (40 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 43rd, +2 vs. consensus (45th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Terrace Marshall for 6.0 targets this week, 36th at his position (he has averaged 5.0 targets since he became a starter in Week 7 after Robbie Anderson was traded).
+ Opponent: The Ravens have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.20 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
– Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Panthers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Amari Cooper, Browns at Bills (32 degrees with heavy forecasted winds and a 60% chance of snow)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 20th, -3 vs. consensus (17th)
– Volume: Below-freezing temperatures, heavy forecasted winds and a 60% chance of snow will likely skew the Browns’ pass/run balance toward the run.
DJ Moore, Panthers at Ravens (40 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 22nd, -2 vs. consensus (20th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Panthers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Ravens have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.20 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Diontae Johnson, Steelers vs. Bengals (30 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 25th, -2 vs. consensus (23rd)
– Volume: Below-freezing temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Steelers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Bengals have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.22 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
+ Efficiency: Diontae Johnson has not caught a touchdown but has 3.53 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 3.53-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Curtis Samuel, Commanders at Texans (Dome)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 28th, -2 vs. consensus (26th)
– Volume: I am projecting Curtis Samuel for 5.3 targets this week, tied for 41st at his position (he has averaged 3.5 targets since Taylor Heinicke took over at quarterback in Week 7 and will likely face greater target competition with Jahan Dotson back from injury).
Adam Thielen, Vikings vs. Cowboys (Dome)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 29th, -2 vs. consensus (27th)
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
+ Efficiency: Adam Thielen has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 3.57 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.57-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
George Pickens, Steelers vs. Bengals (30 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 30th, -1 vs. consensus (29th)
– Volume: Below-freezing temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Steelers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Bengals have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.22 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Christian Watson, Packers vs. Titans (24 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 25% chance of snow)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 31st, -1 vs. consensus (30th)
– Volume: Below-freezing temperatures, moderate forecasted winds and a 25% chance of snow will likely skew the Packers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Efficiency: Christian Watson has caught 3 touchdowns but has just 0.92 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that eighth biggest 2.08-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.17 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns at Bills (32 degrees with heavy forecasted winds and a 60% chance of snow)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 36th, -2 vs. consensus (34th)
– Volume: Below-freezing temperatures, heavy forecasted winds and a 60% chance of snow will likely skew the Browns’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Efficiency: Donovan Peoples-Jones has not caught a touchdown but has 2.41 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fifth biggest 2.41-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Darius Slayton, Giants vs. Lions (38 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 38th, -2 vs. consensus (36th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Giants’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.29 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Devin Duvernay, Ravens vs. Panthers (40 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 39th, -2 vs. consensus (37th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Ravens’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Panthers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.14 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Mack Hollins, Raiders at Broncos (43 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 46th, -2 vs. consensus (44th)
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.59 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Isaiah McKenzie, Bills vs. Browns (32 degrees with heavy forecasted winds and a 60% chance of snow)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 48th, -2 vs. consensus (46th)
– Volume: Below-freezing temperatures, heavy forecasted winds and a 60% chance of snow will likely skew the Bills’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Week 11 Start/Sit: Tight Ends
Robert Tonyan, Packers vs. Titans (24 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 25% chance of snow)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 14th, +2 vs. consensus (16th)
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.17 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
– Volume: Below-freezing temperatures, moderate forecasted winds and a 25% chance of snow will likely skew the Packers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Cole Kmet, Bears at Falcons (Dome)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 12th, -3 vs. consensus (9th)
– Volume: I am projecting Cole Kmet for 3.7 targets this week, 19th at his position (he has averaged 3.9 targets since Week 3).
– Efficiency: Kmet has caught 5 touchdowns but has just 1.77 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 3.23-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Foster Moreau, Raiders at Broncos (43 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 15th, -3 vs. consensus (12th)
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.59 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Dawson Knox, Bills vs. Browns (32 degrees with heavy forecasted winds and a 60% chance of snow)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 16th, -3 vs. consensus (13th)
– Volume: Below-freezing temperatures, heavy forecasted winds and a 60% chance of snow will likely skew the Bills’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Browns have allowed 6.7 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, tied for fourth least in football.
Juwan Johnson, Saints vs. Rams (Dome)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 17th, -3 vs. consensus (14th)
– Efficiency: Juwan Johnson has caught 4 touchdowns but has just 2.00 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that third biggest 2.00-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Rams have allowed 6.3 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, tied for second least in football.
– Opponent: The Rams have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.14 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Hunter Henry, Patriots vs. Jets (40 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 11 Positional Ranking: 22nd, -2 vs. consensus (20th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Patriots’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Jets have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.27 per game in 2022, third in football.
