Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Andrew OgletreeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Colts vs. Browns
Right now, Andrew Ogletree’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- This week’s line implies a throwing game script for the Colts, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.4 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 62.3 plays per game.
- Andrew Ogletree has accumulated a staggering 23.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile among tight ends.
- The Colts offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Cons
- With a 58.3% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 5th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL has been the Indianapolis Colts.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 28.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: fewest in the league.
- Andrew Ogletree checks in as one of the most unreliable receivers in football among TEs, hauling in a mere 63.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 17th percentile.
- This year, the imposing Cleveland Browns defense has allowed a puny 25.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the fewest in football.
- The Browns pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67%) versus TEs since the start of last season (67.0%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards
24
Receiving Yards
