Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Lamar Jackson from EV Insight

Lamar JacksonPassing Yards

Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 220.5 (-105) after it opened @ 221.5 (-120).

Pros

The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 2.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Lamar Jackson’s passing accuracy has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 62.9% to 71.6%.
Lamar Jackson has been among the best per-play quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a fantastic 7.50 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 79th percentile.
This year, the weak Titans defense has yielded a whopping 78.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-worst rate in the NFL.
The Titans pass defense has shown poor efficiency this year, surrendering 8.48 adjusted yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the NFL.

Cons

This game’s line indicates a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 5 points.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 52.2% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Ravens to call the 10th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
In this week’s contest, Lamar Jackson is anticipated by our trusted projection set to total the 5th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 30.1.

Projection

THE BLITZ
209
Passing Yards