WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Kyren WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Rams vs. Eagles
Right now, Kyren Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (+112/-154).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-154) after it opened @ 60.5 (-119).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have played at the 7th-fastest tempo in football (context-neutralized) against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year, averaging 26.60 seconds per snap.
- In this week’s game, Kyren Williams is expected by the model to slot into the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.2 rush attempts.
- After accounting for 14.1% of his offense’s rush attempts last season, Kyren Williams has had a larger role in the running game this season, currently sitting at 62.1%.
- Kyren Williams has rushed for many more adjusted yards per game (67.0) this year than he did last year (15.0).
- Kyren Williams’s 4.2 adjusted yards per carry this season shows a a noteworthy growth in his running talent over last season’s 3.4 figure.
Cons
- The Rams are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 36.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The opposing side have run for the 2nd-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 63 per game) versus the Eagles defense this year.
- Philadelphia defensive tackles grade out as the 6th-best collection of DTs in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
