Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
George PickensReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Steelers vs. Ravens
Right now, George Pickens’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 41.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- The model projects George Pickens to garner 9.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- George Pickens has put up a whopping 80.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Cons
- The Steelers have called the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.5 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- George Pickens’s 53.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this year shows a a remarkable drop-off in his receiving prowess over last year’s 62.5% mark.
- George Pickens’s 7.6 adjusted yards per target this year signifies a a substantial regression in his receiving ability over last year’s 9.7 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards
65
Receiving Yards
