Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-137/+106).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (+106) after it opened @ 78.5 (-114).

Pros

Opposing offenses have played at the 5th-quickest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year, averaging 26.21 seconds per play.
The model projects A.J. Brown to earn 10.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
A.J. Brown has been a more important option in his offense’s pass attack this season (34.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (28.1%).
After averaging 104.0 air yards per game last season, A.J. Brown has gotten better this season, currently boasting 134.0 per game.
A.J. Brown has compiled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (103.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).

Cons

A rushing game script is implied by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 55.9% of their downs: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
This year, the tough Los Angeles Rams defense has given up a measly 53.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-best rate in football.
This year, the fierce Los Angeles Rams defense has given up the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wideouts: a paltry 6.4 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
95
Receiving Yards