Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
C.J. StroudPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Falcons vs. Texans
Right now, C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop is set at 247.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.91 seconds per play.
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
- In racking up a whopping 39.1 pass attempts per game this year, C.J. Stroud rates among the top quarterbacks in football (92nd percentile) in this regard.
- With a stellar rate of 280.0 adjusted passing yards per game (92nd percentile), C.J. Stroud ranks among the top QBs in the NFL this year.
- With an exceptional 7.42 adjusted yards-per-target (76th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud ranks as one of the most efficient passers in the league.
Cons
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans as the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.7% pass rate.
- With a subpar 60.7% Adjusted Completion% (21st percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud rates among the least accurate quarterbacks in the NFL.
- This year, the daunting Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered a measly 189.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing teams: the 6th-fewest in football.
- Since the start of last season, the formidable Falcons defense has given up the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to the opposing side: a puny 4.6 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
247
Passing Yards
247
Passing Yards
