Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Nico Collins from EV Insight

Nico CollinsReceiving Yards

Right now, Nico Collins’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.91 seconds per play.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
In this week’s game, Nico Collins is forecasted by the predictive model to slot into the 84th percentile among wide receivers with 7.4 targets.
After accumulating 82.0 air yards per game last season, Nico Collins has posted big gains this season, currently sitting at 101.0 per game.
Nico Collins has accrued quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (99.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).

Cons

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans as the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.7% pass rate.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 115.0) versus wide receivers this year.
The Falcons safeties project as the 5th-best safety corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards