Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tony PollardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
49ers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-113) after it opened @ 56.5 (-117).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys as the 6th-fastest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.53 seconds per snap.
- In this contest, Tony Pollard is expected by the projection model to slot into the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.8 carries.
- After accounting for 41.6% of his offense’s carries last season, Tony Pollard has had a larger role in the run game this season, currently sitting at 65.0%.
- Tony Pollard’s 88.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year shows a a noteable improvement in his rushing proficiency over last year’s 58.0 rate.
- With a terrific rate of 4.84 adjusted yards per carry (76th percentile), Tony Pollard ranks among the best pure rushers in the league this year.
Cons
- The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Cowboys are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- Tony Pollard has been less successful in picking up extra ground yardage this season, averaging 2.64 yards-after-contact vs a 3.82 rate last season.
- Since the start of last season, the feeble 49ers run defense has yielded a whopping 3.53 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing teams: the 31st-worst rate in the NFL.
- When it comes to the safeties’ role in stopping the run, San Francisco’s group of safeties has been great this year, grading out as the 10th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Rushing Yards
77
Rushing Yards
