Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jake FergusonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
49ers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 33.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Cowboys are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys as the 6th-fastest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.53 seconds per snap.
- Opposing teams have averaged 44.5 pass attempts per game vs. the 49ers defense this year: most in the NFL.
- In this contest, Jake Ferguson is projected by the model to rank in the 89th percentile among TEs with 5.5 targets.
Cons
- Jake Ferguson’s 72.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this year signifies a a material reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last year’s 84.5% mark.
- Jake Ferguson’s pass-catching effectiveness has declined this year, accumulating a mere 6.82 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.06 mark last year.
- This year, the fierce San Francisco 49ers defense has conceded a paltry 52.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the lowest rate in the NFL.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. TEs this year, surrendering 4.23 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in the league.
- The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 5th-best LB corps in the league this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards
36
Receiving Yards
