Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 77.5 (-110) after it opened @ 75.5 (-110).

Pros

The model projects the Tennessee Titans as the 6th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 45.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
In this game, Derrick Henry is anticipated by the projection model to rank in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs with 20.3 rush attempts.
Out of all running backs, Derrick Henry ranks in the 97th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 73.0% of the workload in his offense’s run game.

Cons

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The leading projections forecast the Tennessee Titans offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.90 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Derrick Henry has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (68.0) this year than he did last year (91.0).
This year, the shaky Colts run defense has surrendered a massive 3.81 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing offenses: the 26th-largest rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
87
Rushing Yards