Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Pittman from EV Insight

Michael PittmanReceiving Yards

Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 129.4 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Colts have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
With a stellar 66.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (85th percentile) this year, Michael Pittman has been among the leading wide receivers in the NFL in the NFL.
This year, the feeble Tennessee Titans pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 76.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-highest rate in football.

Cons

The Indianapolis Colts will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Shane Steichen, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The leading projections forecast the Colts as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 56.4% pass rate.
This year, the strong Titans pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing WRs: a measly 3.3 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards