Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Anthony RichardsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Colts vs. Titans
Right now, Anthony Richardson’s passing yards prop is set at 214.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 214.5 (-110) after it opened @ 204.5 (-110).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 129.4 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The Colts have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.0 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- This year, the anemic Tennessee Titans defense has been gouged for a staggering 77.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 2nd-worst rate in football.
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Shane Steichen, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The leading projections forecast the Colts as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 56.4% pass rate.
- With a bad 55.0% Adjusted Completion% (3rd percentile) this year, Anthony Richardson stands as one of the least accurate QBs in football.
- The Titans defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.49 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
232
Passing Yards
232
Passing Yards
