Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joshua DobbsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Cardinals vs. Bengals
Right now, Joshua Dobbs’s passing yards prop is set at 223.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 223.5 (-110) after it opened @ 220.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Cardinals will be rolling out backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Cardinals are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- Joshua Dobbs’s throwing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 62.4% to 70.4%.
- The Bengals pass defense has shown bad efficiency since the start of last season, allowing 7.93 adjusted yards-per-target: the 7th-most in football.
Cons
- The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 5.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The predictive model expects the Cardinals as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.1% pass rate.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projection model to run only 60.6 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
- In this week’s game, Joshua Dobbs is projected by the predictive model to have the 6th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 31.8.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the Bengals defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
224
Passing Yards
224
Passing Yards
