WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Cardinals vs. Bengals
Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-110) after it opened @ 78.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
- Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 99.4% of his team’s dropbacks this year, ranking in the 100th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- Ja’Marr Chase has been among the leading wideouts in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a terrific 5.83 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 80th percentile.
- This year, the feeble Cardinals defense has yielded a colossal 186.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing WRs: the 5th-most in the league.
Cons
- This game’s spread implies a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3 points.
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call just 61.2 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The Bengals have run the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
- Ja’Marr Chase has posted quite a few less air yards this year (74.0 per game) than he did last year (97.0 per game).
- The Bengals offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
96
Receiving Yards
96
Receiving Yards
