Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alexander MattisonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Vikings vs. Chiefs
Right now, Alexander Mattison’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-110).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 133.2 total plays run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.
- Alexander Mattison has rushed for many more adjusted yards per game (63.0) this season than he did last season (16.0).
- When it comes to the safeties’ role in run defense, Kansas City’s unit has been very bad this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
Cons
- The Vikings are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to run on 32.1% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
- The Vikings have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 54.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have run for the 9th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 100 per game) against the Chiefs defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards
51
Rushing Yards
