Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Vikings vs. Chiefs
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Vikings are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Vikings to pass on 67.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 133.2 total plays run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- This year, the porous Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has conceded a staggering 84.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 4th-highest rate in the NFL.
Cons
- The Vikings have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 54.5 plays per game.
- T.J. Hockenson has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (41.0 per game) than he did last season (59.0 per game).
- T.J. Hockenson’s ability to pick up extra yardage has tailed off this year, compiling just 4.92 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.18 mark last year.
- The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 7th-best collection of LBs in football this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
