Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jerry JeudyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Broncos vs. Jets
Right now, Jerry Jeudy’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Jerry Jeudy has been a big part of his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 23.5% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 86th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- When it comes to air yards, Jerry Jeudy ranks in the towering 90th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, accumulating a monstrous 88.0 per game.
- Jerry Jeudy has been among the top WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 60.0 yards per game while grading out in the 83rd percentile.
- Jerry Jeudy’s skills in picking up extra yardage have improved this year, totaling 9.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 4.82 figure last year.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Broncos to pass on 55.7% of their chances: the 8th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Broncos are forecasted by the model to run just 60.6 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
- The Broncos have run the 6th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 52.2 plays per game.
- Jerry Jeudy’s receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.4% to 63.1%.
- The Jets pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (63%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (63.0%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
