Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Miles SandersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Lions vs. Panthers
Right now, Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 42.5 (-133) after it opened @ 42.5 (-119).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Panthers to be the 5th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.46 seconds per play.
- Among all RBs, Miles Sanders grades out in the 89th percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 57.0% of the workload in his team’s rushing attack.
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football last year at run-game blocking.
Cons
- The Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Panthers are a massive 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Panthers to run on 40.1% of their chances: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- Miles Sanders has rushed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (38.0) this year than he did last year (74.0).
- Opposing teams have run for the fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 55 per game) against the Lions defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards
54
Rushing Yards
