Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Adam Thielen from EV Insight

Adam ThielenReceiving Yards

Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-132/+102).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (+102) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

The Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a massive 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Carolina Panthers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Lions defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Adam Thielen has put up substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (75.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).

Cons

The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Lions pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 2.27 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in the league.
The Detroit Lions safeties grade out as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards