Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Broncos vs. Jets
Right now, Zach Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 208.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 208.5 (-110) after it opened @ 207.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Jets will be forced to use backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- Zach Wilson’s passing precision has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 55.9% to 60.6%.
- This year, the poor Broncos defense has been gouged for a staggering 286.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 2nd-worst in football.
- The Broncos defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 7.58 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the most in football.
- Broncos cornerbacks project as the worst CB corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jets are projected by our trusted projection set to call just 61.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
- The New York Jets have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 49.5 plays per game.
- This week, Zach Wilson is predicted by the projections to total the 10th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 33.4.
- Zach Wilson has been among the bottom quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging 180.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 24th percentile.
- Zach Wilson has been among the least effective passers in football this year, averaging just 5.84 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 15th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
205
Passing Yards
205
Passing Yards
