Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for CeeDee Lamb from EV Insight

CeeDee LambReceiving Yards

Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-120/-109).

The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-120) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).

Pros

The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Cowboys are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys as the 6th-fastest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.53 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams have averaged 44.5 pass attempts per game vs. the 49ers defense this year: most in the NFL.
CeeDee Lamb has been among the best WRs in the game this year, averaging an exceptional 76.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 91st percentile.

Cons

CeeDee Lamb has put up quite a few less air yards this year (66.0 per game) than he did last year (94.0 per game).
CeeDee Lamb’s 56.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 67.6.
This year, the daunting 49ers defense has yielded the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wideouts: a puny 7.0 yards.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 5th-best LB corps in the league this year in defending receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards