Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brandon AiyukReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
49ers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-139/+102).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-139) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).
Pros
- Brandon Aiyuk has run a route on 93.7% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
- The leading projections forecast Brandon Aiyuk to accrue 7.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- Brandon Aiyuk has put up a massive 75.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 84th percentile among WRs.
- Brandon Aiyuk has been among the best pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 69.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 91st percentile.
- Brandon Aiyuk’s 86.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this year represents a a significant improvement in his pass-catching skills over last year’s 68.9% rate.
Cons
- This week’s line indicates a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 3.5 points.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 54.5% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- Our trusted projections expect the 49ers offense as the most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 31.28 seconds per play.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and increased rush volume.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 27.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
