Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dak PrescottPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
49ers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 241.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 241.5 (-110) after it opened @ 244.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Cowboys are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys as the 6th-fastest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.53 seconds per snap.
- Opposing teams have averaged 44.5 pass attempts per game vs. the 49ers defense this year: most in the NFL.
- Dak Prescott’s 72.1% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a a significant improvement in his throwing precision over last season’s 65.4% mark.
Cons
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, yielding 5.97 adjusted yards-per-target: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
- This year, the imposing 49ers defense has conceded the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing offenses: a measly 4.6 YAC.
- The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 5th-best LB corps in the league this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
227
Passing Yards
227
Passing Yards
