Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Cook from EV Insight

James CookRushing Yards

Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-110).

Pros

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The model projects James Cook to total 12.8 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
James Cook has been much more involved in his team’s rushing attack this season (54.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (19.1%).
James Cook has rushed for significantly more adjusted yards per game (75.0) this season than he did last season (32.0).
James Cook’s rushing efficiency (5.34 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (84th percentile among running backs).

Cons

The predictive model expects the Bills to be the 9th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 40.4% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Bills to call the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league last year at opening holes for runners.
Since the start of last season, the feeble Jaguars run defense has yielded a monstrous 4.30 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing rushing attacks: the 27th-highest rate in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards