Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Calvin Ridley from EV Insight

Calvin RidleyReceiving Yards

Right now, Calvin Ridley’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 61.5 (-110).

Pros

The Jaguars are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.9% of their chances: the 6th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have played at the 9th-fastest tempo in the NFL (adjusted for context) against the Jaguars defense this year, averaging 27.07 seconds per snap.
Calvin Ridley has run a route on 88.0% of his offense’s passing plays this year, placing him in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
In this game, Calvin Ridley is expected by our trusted projection set to land in the 86th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.7 targets.

Cons

Opposing offenses have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
Calvin Ridley has been among the most unreliable receivers in football, hauling in a measly 54.0% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 18th percentile among wideouts
Calvin Ridley has been among the weakest wideouts in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.93 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 25th percentile.
This year, the formidable Buffalo Bills defense has allowed a paltry 113.0 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs: the 2nd-best in the NFL.
Since the start of last season, the formidable Bills pass defense has conceded the least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing WRs: a paltry 3.3 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards