Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 264.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 264.5 (-110) after it opened @ 262.5 (-110).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 68.0% pass rate.
The Bills offensive line grades out as the best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Josh Allen has been among the top passers in football this year, averaging a stellar 272.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.
Josh Allen’s 75.6% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a an impressive improvement in his passing accuracy over last season’s 64.2% rate.
This year, the weak Jaguars defense has been torched for a colossal 252.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 8th-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The model projects the Bills to call the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Jaguars cornerbacks project as the best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
263
Passing Yards