Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Commanders vs. Bears
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 31.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Bears are a 6-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- In this week’s contest, Cole Kmet is forecasted by the predictive model to rank in the 88th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.4 targets.
- Cole Kmet has notched many more air yards this year (43.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
- Cole Kmet has compiled quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (50.0) this year than he did last year (32.0).
- Cole Kmet has been among the most efficient receivers in the league among TEs, averaging a fantastic 8.36 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 84th percentile.
Cons
- The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast the Bears to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The Bears have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.8 plays per game.
- Cole Kmet has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (71.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (84.0%).
- This year, the imposing Commanders defense has given up a feeble 18.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
