Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brian RobinsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Commanders vs. Bears
Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-135/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (-135) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Commanders are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- In this contest, Brian Robinson is expected by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 86th percentile among running backs with 15.0 rush attempts.
- Brian Robinson has been a more important option in his offense’s rushing attack this year (66.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (52.4%).
- With an impressive rate of 64.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (85th percentile), Brian Robinson rates as one of the leading pure runners in football this year.
- Chicago Bears defensive ends grade out as the worst DE corps in the NFL this year with their run defense.
Cons
- The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 11.3% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders as the 5th-least run-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 34.6% run rate.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 121.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league last year in run blocking.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards
66
Rushing Yards
