Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Commanders vs. Bears
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-154/+112).
The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-154) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears are a 6-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- The model projects D.J. Moore to accumulate 6.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
- When it comes to air yards, D.J. Moore grades out in the lofty 89th percentile among wide receivers this year, accumulating a massive 93.0 per game.
- D.J. Moore has compiled a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (79.0) this year than he did last year (49.0).
- This year, the shaky Washington Commanders defense has been torched for a massive 192.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the 3rd-most in the league.
Cons
- The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast the Bears to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The Bears have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.8 plays per game.
- D.J. Moore’s 60.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 73.7.
- The Washington Commanders cornerbacks profile as the 5th-best CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
