Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

D.J. MooreReceiving Yards

Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-154/+112).

The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-154) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bears are a 6-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The model projects D.J. Moore to accumulate 6.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
When it comes to air yards, D.J. Moore grades out in the lofty 89th percentile among wide receivers this year, accumulating a massive 93.0 per game.
D.J. Moore has compiled a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (79.0) this year than he did last year (49.0).
This year, the shaky Washington Commanders defense has been torched for a massive 192.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the 3rd-most in the league.

Cons

The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Bears to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.8 plays per game.
D.J. Moore’s 60.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 73.7.
The Washington Commanders cornerbacks profile as the 5th-best CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards