Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DK Metcalf from EV Insight

DK MetcalfReceiving Yards

Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-131) after it opened @ 61.5 (-117).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Seahawks as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally lead to better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.
Our trusted projections expect D.K. Metcalf to accumulate 8.2 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among wideouts.
As it relates to air yards, D.K. Metcalf grades out in the towering 96th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 101.0 per game.
D.K. Metcalf’s 66.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 94th percentile for wide receivers.

Cons

The model projects the Seahawks to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 8th-fewest in football.
D.K. Metcalf has been among the weakest wideouts in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 24th percentile.
The Giants pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.5%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (64.5%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards