Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Breece HallRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Jets vs. Chiefs
Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-127/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-127) after it opened @ 47.5 (-117).
Pros
- The New York Jets will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Jets have been the 7th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 42.3% run rate.
- Our trusted projections expect Breece Hall to total 11.8 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- Out of all RBs, Breece Hall ranks in the 78th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 41.3% of the workload in his offense’s ground game.
- Breece Hall has picked up 60.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL when it comes to running backs (85th percentile).
Cons
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup quarterback Zach Wilson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Jets are a big 7.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The model projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 26.95 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Jets have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing attack efficiency when facing better conditions this week.
- Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-fewest yards in the league (just 105 per game) against the Chiefs defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards
54
Rushing Yards
