Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Cowboys vs. Patriots
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 33.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Patriots are a massive 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots as the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The leading projections forecast Hunter Henry to accrue 5.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Cons
- Hunter Henry’s receiving effectiveness has diminished this year, averaging just 7.33 yards-per-target compared to a 8.54 rate last year.
- Hunter Henry’s ability to generate extra yardage has diminished this year, totaling just 3.23 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.85 figure last year.
- The Cowboys pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. TEs since the start of last season, conceding 5.97 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in the league.
- The Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the 6th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
