Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 33.5 (-114).

Pros

The Patriots are a massive 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots as the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The leading projections forecast Hunter Henry to accrue 5.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Cons

Hunter Henry’s receiving effectiveness has diminished this year, averaging just 7.33 yards-per-target compared to a 8.54 rate last year.
Hunter Henry’s ability to generate extra yardage has diminished this year, totaling just 3.23 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.85 figure last year.
The Cowboys pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. TEs since the start of last season, conceding 5.97 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in the league.
The Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the 6th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in defending receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards