Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyren WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Colts vs. Rams
Right now, Kyren Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (+110/-151).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-151) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The model projects Kyren Williams to notch 16.6 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs.
- The projections expect Kyren Williams to be a much bigger part of his offense’s ground game in this week’s game (69.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (58.2% in games he has played).
- When it comes to the safeties’ role in defending against the run, Indianapolis’s collection of safeties has been awful since the start of last season, grading out as the 3rd-worst in football. in football.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Rams to be the 5th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Rams have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has had the 7th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, giving up just 4.34 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards
71
Rushing Yards
