Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Panthers vs. Vikings
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 99.5 yards (-118/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 99.5 (-118) after it opened @ 99.5 (-113).
Pros
- The model projects the Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Vikings have run the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a massive 60.6 plays per game.
- Justin Jefferson has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 110.0 yards per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been gouged for the highest Completion% in the NFL (71.4%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (71.4%).
Cons
- The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week’s game.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.52 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
109
Receiving Yards
109
Receiving Yards
