Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Logan Thomas from EV Insight

Logan ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 10.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a heavy 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Commanders to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.4 plays per game.
The projections expect Logan Thomas to garner 5.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Cons

The projections expect the Commanders to run the 11th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-fewest in the NFL.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Logan Thomas’s receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.7% to 56.8%.
Logan Thomas has been among the worst tight ends in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.98 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 18th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards