Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jalen HurtsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Eagles vs. Commanders
Right now, Jalen Hurts’s passing yards prop is set at 233.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 233.5 (-110) after it opened @ 234.5 (-110).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.63 seconds per snap.
- The Eagles offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Philadelphia Eagles will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Eagles are a heavy 8.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- The projections expect the Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
- Jalen Hurts’s passing efficiency has tailed off this year, compiling a measly 6.60 yards-per-target vs a 7.62 rate last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
214
Passing Yards
214
Passing Yards
