Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Brock Purdy from EV Insight

Brock PurdyPassing Yards

Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (-143/+110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 224.5 (+110) after it opened @ 225.5 (-113).

Pros

The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense efficiency when facing better conditions this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
Brock Purdy has been among the most efficient QBs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 8.39 yards-per-target while grading out in the 97th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-highest rate in football against the Cardinals defense since the start of last season (73.5%).
The Arizona Cardinals defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.89 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season: the most in the league.

Cons

The 49ers are a massive 14.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The projections expect Brock Purdy to attempt 30.5 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 2nd-fewest of all QBs.
Brock Purdy has been among the worst QBs in the league since the start of last season, averaging 177.0 yards per game while grading out in the 21st percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
219
Passing Yards