Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tank DellReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Texans vs. Steelers
Right now, Tank Dell’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The projections expect Nathaniel Dell to total 7.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 78th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- Nathaniel Dell has been responsible for a massive 27.1% of his offense’s air yards this year: 77th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The model projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.2% pass rate.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense since the start of last season: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
- The Texans offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has excelled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.70 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards
56
Receiving Yards
